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2016 President · NJ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 551 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.78% · Republican 37.86%

D+9.9

The certified result

Democrat 55.45% · Republican 41.35%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.78 − 37.86 = 9.92
  2. Actual margin = 55.453 − 41.350 = 14.103
  3. Signed miss = 9.92 − (14.103) = -4.183
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.183| = 4.183

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48697, race ID 633 (538 database).