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2016 President · MI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 342 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.95% · Republican 44.53%

D+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 47.22% · Republican 47.44%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.95 − 44.53 = 1.42
  2. Actual margin = 47.216 − 47.439 = -0.223
  3. Signed miss = 1.42 − (-0.223) = 1.643
  4. Absolute miss = |1.643| = 1.643

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48696, race ID 624 (538 database).