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2016 President · IN

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 303 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.79% · Republican 53.68%

R+15.9

The certified result

Democrat 37.77% · Republican 56.94%

R+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.79 − 53.68 = -15.89
  2. Actual margin = 37.775 − 56.940 = -19.165
  3. Signed miss = -15.89 − (-19.165) = 3.275
  4. Absolute miss = |3.275| = 3.275

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48694, race ID 617 (538 database).