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2016 President · IL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 482 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.3% · Republican 39.08%

D+12.2

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 38.76%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.3 − 39.08 = 12.22
  2. Actual margin = 55.825 − 38.762 = 17.063
  3. Signed miss = 12.22 − (17.063) = -4.844
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.844| = 4.844

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48693, race ID 616 (538 database).