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2016 President · FL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 888 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.66% · Republican 46.77%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.66 − 46.77 = 0.89
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 0.89 − (-1.199) = 2.089
  4. Absolute miss = |2.089| = 2.089

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48691, race ID 611 (538 database).