2016 Senate · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 56%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.66% · Republican 60.09%
R+24.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 56 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 35.655 − 60.090 = -24.435
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-24.435) = 1.435
- Absolute miss = |1.435| = 1.435
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48470, race ID 92 (538 database).