2016 President · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 46%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.75% · Republican 51.16%
R+9.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 46 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 41.753 − 51.162 = -9.409
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-9.409) = 2.410
- Absolute miss = |2.410| = 2.410
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48470, race ID 614 (538 database).