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2016 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 538 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39.2% · Republican 50%

R+10.8

The certified result

Democrat 41.03% · Republican 54.78%

R+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.2 − 50 = -10.80
  2. Actual margin = 41.033 − 54.784 = -13.751
  3. Signed miss = -10.80 − (-13.751) = 2.951
  4. Absolute miss = |2.951| = 2.951

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48341, race ID 88 (538 database).