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2016 President · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 538 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 48.5%

R+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 48.5 = -3.80
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -3.80 − (-5.131) = 1.331
  4. Absolute miss = |1.331| = 1.331

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48341, race ID 612 (538 database).