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2016 President · VT

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 106 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.27% · Republican 23.4%

D+24.9

The certified result

Democrat 56.68% · Republican 30.27%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.27 − 23.4 = 24.87
  2. Actual margin = 56.678 − 30.269 = 26.409
  3. Signed miss = 24.87 − (26.409) = -1.538
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.538| = 1.538

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48255, race ID 648 (538 database).