Skip to content

2016 Senate · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 603 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49.6%

R+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49.6 = -3.60
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -3.60 − (-7.666) = 4.066
  4. Absolute miss = |4.066| = 4.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48188, race ID 93 (538 database).