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2016 President · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 603 respondents · IVR/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 45%

D+4.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 45 = 4.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 4.30 − (-1.199) = 5.499
  4. Absolute miss = |5.499| = 5.499

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48188, race ID 611 (538 database).