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2016 Senate · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.137) = -3.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.138| = 3.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48187, race ID 85 (538 database).