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2016 President · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.367) = -5.368
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.368| = 5.368

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48187, race ID 632 (538 database).