2016 President · national
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 825 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 48%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%
D+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 48 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.182) = 0.819
- Absolute miss = |0.819| = 0.819
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48183, race ID 94 (538 database).