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2016 President · national

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,772 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 37.4%

D+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 37.4 = 7.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 7.30 − (2.182) = 5.119
  4. Absolute miss = |5.119| = 5.119

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48114, race ID 94 (538 database).