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2016 President · TX

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33.95% · Republican 48.36%

R+14.4

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.23%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.95 − 48.36 = -14.41
  2. Actual margin = 43.235 − 52.235 = -9.000
  3. Signed miss = -14.41 − (-9.000) = -5.411
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.411| = 5.411

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47750, race ID 645 (538 database).