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2016 President · NJ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.95% · Republican 34.25%

D+16.7

The certified result

Democrat 55.45% · Republican 41.35%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.95 − 34.25 = 16.70
  2. Actual margin = 55.453 − 41.350 = 14.103
  3. Signed miss = 16.70 − (14.103) = 2.597
  4. Absolute miss = |2.597| = 2.597

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47740, race ID 633 (538 database).