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2016 President · MI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 335 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.34% · Republican 37.11%

D+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.22% · Republican 47.44%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.34 − 37.11 = 4.23
  2. Actual margin = 47.216 − 47.439 = -0.223
  3. Signed miss = 4.23 − (-0.223) = 4.453
  4. Absolute miss = |4.453| = 4.453

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47732, race ID 624 (538 database).