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2016 President · IN

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 368 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.9% · Republican 53.54%

R+14.6

The certified result

Democrat 37.77% · Republican 56.94%

R+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.9 − 53.54 = -14.64
  2. Actual margin = 37.775 − 56.940 = -19.165
  3. Signed miss = -14.64 − (-19.165) = 4.525
  4. Absolute miss = |4.525| = 4.525

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47724, race ID 617 (538 database).