Skip to content

2016 President · FL

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.199) = -0.801
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.801| = 0.801

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47469, race ID 611 (538 database).