2016 President · WI
McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%
R+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.764) = 5.764
- Absolute miss = |5.764| = 5.764
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47463, race ID 650 (538 database).