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2016 President · national

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,153 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.1% · Republican 35.6%

D+8.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.1 − 35.6 = 8.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 8.50 − (2.182) = 6.319
  4. Absolute miss = |6.319| = 6.319

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47349, race ID 94 (538 database).