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2004 President · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 54.01% · Republican 45.27%

D+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.010 − 45.265 = 8.745
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (8.745) = -8.745
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.745| = 8.745

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4695, race ID 766 (538 database).