2004 President · NM
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.05% · Republican 49.84%
R+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.047 − 49.838 = -0.791
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.791) = 2.792
- Absolute miss = |2.792| = 2.792
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4642, race ID 787 (538 database).