2004 House · CO-3
FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 259 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 30%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.55% · Republican 46.56%
D+4.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 30 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 50.552 − 46.559 = 3.993
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (3.993) = 13.007
- Absolute miss = |13.007| = 13.007
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4577, race ID 3228 (538 database).