2004 President · IN
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 57%
R+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.26% · Republican 59.95%
R+20.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 57 = -20.00
- Actual margin = 39.263 − 59.945 = -20.682
- Signed miss = -20.00 − (-20.682) = 0.682
- Absolute miss = |0.682| = 0.682
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4422, race ID 770 (538 database).