2004 Governor · IN
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 48%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.49% · Republican 53.21%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 45.493 − 53.213 = -7.720
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-7.720) = 1.720
- Absolute miss = |1.720| = 1.720
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4422, race ID 1366 (538 database).