2004 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 289 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 50%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.80% · Republican 60.20%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 39.804 − 60.196 = -20.392
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-20.392) = 8.391
- Absolute miss = |8.391| = 8.391
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4401, race ID 3412 (538 database).