Skip to content

2004 President · NM

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.05% · Republican 49.84%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.047 − 49.838 = -0.791
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.791) = 1.792
  4. Absolute miss = |1.792| = 1.792

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4382, race ID 787 (538 database).