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2004 President · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (1.368) = -2.368
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.368| = 2.368

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4300, race ID 785 (538 database).