2014 House · KS-2
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 49%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.62% · Republican 57.05%
R+18.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 38.617 − 57.045 = -18.428
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-18.428) = 6.428
- Absolute miss = |6.428| = 6.428
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35924, race ID 5496 (538 database).