2014 Senate · NC
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 909 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 42%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%
R+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.565) = 2.564
- Absolute miss = |2.564| = 2.564
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34414, race ID 14 (538 database).