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2014 House · HI-1

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 354 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.93% · Republican 48.07%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.928 − 48.072 = 3.856
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.856) = -3.857
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.857| = 3.857

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34398, race ID 5460 (538 database).