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2014 Senate · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 605 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 71% · Republican 20%

D+51.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.77% · Republican 27.70%

D+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 71 − 20 = 51.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.770 − 27.703 = 42.067
  3. Signed miss = 51.00 − (42.067) = 8.933
  4. Absolute miss = |8.933| = 8.933

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34398, race ID 34 (538 database).