2014 Governor · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 701 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 59%
R+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%
R+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 59 = -24.00
- Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
- Signed miss = -24.00 − (-21.721) = -2.279
- Absolute miss = |-2.279| = 2.279
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34392, race ID 1226 (538 database).