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2014 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,463 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-7.860) = 4.860
  4. Absolute miss = |4.860| = 4.860

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34390, race ID 1249 (538 database).