2014 Governor · KS
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 907 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.13% · Republican 49.82%
R+3.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 46.130 − 49.821 = -3.691
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-3.691) = 9.691
- Absolute miss = |9.691| = 9.691
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34369, race ID 1228 (538 database).