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2014 Governor · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.948) = -2.948
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.948| = 2.948

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34333, race ID 1234 (538 database).