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2014 Senate · ME

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 488 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 64%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.50% · Republican 68.46%

R+37.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 64 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.498 − 68.458 = -36.960
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-36.960) = 4.960
  4. Absolute miss = |4.960| = 4.960

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34322, race ID 9 (538 database).