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2014 Governor · AZ

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 43%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.62% · Republican 53.44%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 43 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.617 − 53.442 = -11.825
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-11.825) = 4.825
  4. Absolute miss = |4.825| = 4.825

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34127, race ID 1222 (538 database).