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2014 Governor · CO

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2014-10-17 (18 days before the election) · 1,099 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.342) = -3.342
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.342| = 3.342

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33838, race ID 1247 (538 database).