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2014 Governor · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (4.948) = 5.052
  4. Absolute miss = |5.052| = 5.052

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33762, race ID 1234 (538 database).