2010 Senate · PA
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 46%
even
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.016) = 2.017
- Absolute miss = |2.017| = 2.017
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32672, race ID 1537 (538 database).