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2010 Senate · FL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 577 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 20% · Republican 41%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 20 − 41 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-28.697) = 7.697
  4. Absolute miss = |7.697| = 7.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32646, race ID 1514 (538 database).