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2010 Senate · CA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 448 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (10.011) = -9.011
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.011| = 9.011

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32565, race ID 1510 (538 database).