2012 Senate · IN
Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 825 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.04% · Republican 44.28%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 50.044 − 44.280 = 5.764
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.764) = 1.236
- Absolute miss = |1.236| = 1.236
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30831, race ID 1479 (538 database).