Skip to content

2012 Governor · IN

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 825 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.56% · Republican 49.49%

R+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.560 − 49.486 = -2.926
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-2.926) = -0.074
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.074| = 0.074

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30831, race ID 1260 (538 database).