2012 Senate · AZ
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 41%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.20% · Republican 49.23%
R+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 46.204 − 49.231 = -3.027
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.027) = 7.027
- Absolute miss = |7.027| = 7.027
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30818, race ID 1473 (538 database).