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2012 President · CO

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 774 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.365) = -4.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.365| = 4.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30787, race ID 658 (538 database).